Development of a Safety and Risk Assessment Methodology for the Integration of Large-Scale Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) on Ro-Pax Ferries

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Ferries that carry vehicles and passengers across short sea routes have begun to incorporate battery systems for propulsion and auxiliary power. Operators face pressure from emissions regulations that target maritime transport. Batteries promise reduced fuel use during peak loads. Yet integration raises questions about fire propagation in confined spaces. Early adopters in Norway tested small-scale units on routes between fjords. Those trials exposed gaps in monitoring electrolyte leaks. Engineers adapted land-based protocols, but salt air and vibrations demanded revisions. A methodology must account for these factors from the outset. Thus, assessment starts with vessel-specific layouts.

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Ro-Pax ferries differ from cargo ships because decks hold mixed loads of cars, trucks, and people. Batteries installed below waterlines encounter humidity that accelerates corrosion on casings. Data from a 2022 incident off Denmark showed moisture triggering short circuits in lithium cells (Vorkapić et al., 2023). Crews struggled to isolate affected modules without halting operations. Consequently, risk models incorporate probabilistic failure rates tied to environmental exposure. For instance, a 5% annual probability of seal degradation leads to cascading faults. Experts recommend modular designs that allow hot-swapping units mid-voyage. In some ways, this approach mirrors aviation maintenance logs. However, ferry schedules tolerate less downtime than flights do. The methodology thus prioritizes rapid diagnostics over exhaustive overhauls.

Hazards Emerging from Battery Scale-Up

Large-scale BESS exceed 1 MWh capacity on modern ferries to support electric thrusters. Cells packed densely release heat during discharge cycles. Thermal runaway initiates when one unit overheats, igniting neighbors. A simulation run on a 500 kWh prototype indicated temperatures reaching 800°C within minutes (Yuan et al., 2023). Fire suppression systems rely on aerosol agents, but these disperse unevenly in sloped battery rooms. Operators must drill for scenarios where inert gas floods fail due to pressure drops. Furthermore, passenger evacuation paths near storage areas complicate response times. To be fair, smaller installations on fishing vessels avoided such escalations through sparse layouts. Ro-Pax designs force tighter integrations for weight balance. Assessment therefore quantifies propagation velocity across cell arrays.

Collisions pose another threat, as ferries navigate busy straits. Impact forces can puncture enclosures, exposing cells to seawater. Electrolyte reactions with salt produce hydrogen gas, risking explosions. A 2021 grounding in the Baltic exposed a hybrid ferry’s batteries to flooding; crews vented fumes manually for hours (Andreasen et al., 2021). Risk layers include hull breach probabilities from AIS track data. Models assign weights to event trees branching from initial contact. For example, a 10% chance of breach escalates to 3% explosion likelihood under high seas. Engineers integrate strain gauges on mounts to detect shifts pre-impact. Nonetheless, retrofits on older hulls prove costly. The methodology embeds these metrics into design reviews.

Modeling Thermal Runaway in Confined Spaces

Heat transfer equations govern runaway spread in battery banks. Conduction through metal frames accelerates ignition chains. Finite element analysis reveals hotspots forming at cable junctions. A study of a 2 MWh array predicted full compartment involvement in under 10 minutes without barriers (Wang et al., 2024). Compartmentation uses intumescent seals that expand on heat exposure. Crew training emphasizes early detection via infrared scans. However, false alarms from motor heat signatures confuse operators. Thus, algorithms filter sensor inputs against baseline profiles. In addition, ventilation ducts must route exhaust away from intake vents. Real-world tests on a Swedish testbed confirmed 20% risk reduction with zoned airflow.

Gas buildup demands dedicated scrubbers for hydrogen and off-gases. Electrochemical sensors detect thresholds at 4% concentration. Integration with alarm panels triggers auto-shutdowns. Yet, power interruptions during venting create feedback loops. Operators favor redundant circuits that bypass faulty modules. A Norwegian operator reported zero incidents after implementing such redundancies on a 2023 retrofit (Vorkapić et al., 2023). Assessment phases test these under simulated swells. Furthermore, documentation logs sensor drifts over voyages. The methodology standardizes thresholds across vessel classes.

Navigational Risks and Battery Vulnerability

Ferries follow fixed routes, but weather alters speeds and headings. Gusts up to 50 knots strain battery cooling fans. Overloads spike internal resistances, edging cells toward failure. Route optimization software now factors battery state-of-charge against forecasts. A Danish trial cut overload events by 15% through predictive routing (Andreasen et al., 2021). Risk matrices score these intersections with failure modes. For instance, a 2% daily overload probability compounds to structural fatigue over 500 cycles. Crews monitor via dashboards showing real-time margins. To be fair, diesel backups mitigate total blackouts. However, hybrid transitions expose wiring to arcing. Assessment incorporates voyage logs for pattern recognition.

Groundings scrape hulls against rocky bottoms, jarring mounts. Accelerometers trigger protective relays that isolate power. Post-event inspections check for micro-cracks in casings. A 2024 Finnish case study linked a minor scrape to delayed capacity loss (Wang et al., 2024). Models simulate jolt magnitudes from bathymetric charts. Probabilities derive from historical incident databases. Engineers specify shock-absorbing pads under racks. Nonetheless, cost-benefit analyses justify thresholds. The methodology guides iterative hardening based on fleet data.

Constructing the Assessment Framework

System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) identifies unsafe control actions in BESS operations. Controllers range from software governors to human overrides. UCAs emerge when commands lag during faults. Applied to a Ro-Pax layout, STPA uncovers 47 potential gaps in a baseline design (Yuan et al., 2023). Teams map causal factors like delayed sensor polls. Refinements add interlocks that halt charging on anomaly detection. For example, voltage spikes above 4.2V per cell prompt isolation. In some ways, this echoes automotive protocols. However, maritime vibrations demand sturdier interfaces. The framework sequences STPA outputs into layered reviews.

Fault tree analysis quantifies top events like compartment fires. Basic events include cell defects at 0.01% rate from supplier specs. Gates combine failures with AND/OR logic. A Monte Carlo simulation runs 10,000 iterations to yield confidence intervals. Results for a 1.5 MWh system peg annual fire risk at 1 in 5,000 voyages (Vorkapić et al., 2023). Sensitivity tests vary input rates. Operators use outputs to prioritize mitigations. Furthermore, bow-tie diagrams visualize barriers before and after threats. Assessment cycles update trees with operational feedback. Thus, the methodology evolves with deployments.

Integrating Quantitative Tools

Bayesian networks update risks as data accrues. Nodes represent states like “degraded seal” with prior probabilities from lab tests. Edges link to outcomes via conditional tables. A ferry trial incorporated networks to forecast maintenance windows, reducing unplanned stops by 12% (Andreasen et al., 2021). Evidence from patrols refines posteriors. For instance, humidity logs adjust degradation nodes. Software platforms render networks interactive for planners. However, computational loads slow real-time use. The framework opts for offline runs feeding into daily briefs. In addition, hybrid models blend trees with networks for comprehensive views.

Cost-effectiveness ratios guide investment decisions. Metrics calculate net present values for barriers like enhanced cooling. A 2025 projection estimates €2 million savings per vessel over 10 years through risk cuts (Wang et al., 2024). Stakeholders weigh these against capex hikes. Sensitivity to discount rates tests robustness. Operators document choices in audit trails. Nonetheless, regulatory variances across flags complicate standardization. The methodology proposes harmonized templates. Thus, fleets achieve scalable compliance.

Case Application: A Baltic Ro-Pax Retrofit

A 150-meter ferry serving Stockholm to Tallinn integrated 3 MWh BESS in 2024. Baseline assessment via STPA flagged 12 UCAs in power management. Teams revised firmware to enforce 80% depth-of-discharge limits. Voyage data from the first quarter showed no thermal excursions. Risk scores dropped from 4.2 to 2.1 on a 1-5 scale (Yuan et al., 2023). Crew feedback highlighted dashboard clutter. Refinements streamlined alerts to three priority tiers. For example, yellow warnings for minor drifts allowed continued ops. In some ways, this mirrored land grid integrations. However, wave-induced noise filtered uniquely. The application validated framework adaptability.

Fault trees modeled collision scenarios using route density maps. A side-impact event carried 0.5% probability yearly. Simulations tested foam barriers absorbing 70% kinetic energy. Post-retrofit drills cut evacuation times by 18 seconds (Vorkapić et al., 2023). Quantitative outputs informed insurance premiums, shaving 8% off rates. Operators shared anonymized data with peers. Furthermore, Bayesian updates from patrols refined node strengths. A single humidity spike adjusted priors downward. Assessment phases looped in these gains. Thus, the ferry set benchmarks for regional fleets.

Operational Feedback Loops and Refinements

Data streams from sensors feed continuous monitoring. IoT platforms aggregate volt, temp, and vibe metrics. Anomalies trigger root-cause analyses. A Norwegian operator’s 2023 dataset revealed vibration peaks correlating with 5% capacity fades (Andreasen et al., 2021). Algorithms now predict these from engine harmonics. Crews access mobile apps for on-shift checks. However, bandwidth limits offshore uploads. The methodology advocates edge computing for interim storage. In addition, annual audits recalibrate models. Refinements ensure alignment with emerging cell chemistries.

Regulatory bodies like IMO review methodologies for goal-based standards. DNV class rules incorporate STPA elements since 2022. Ferries certifying under these gain trade flexibility. A 2024 gap analysis found 60% overlap with proposed frameworks (Wang et al., 2024). Operators lobby for unified metrics. For instance, harmonized runaway test protocols across Europe. To be fair, national variances persist in fire agent approvals. Assessment includes compliance checklists. Thus, integrations proceed with assured pathways.

Future deployments scale to 10 MWh units for full electrification. Projections indicate 30% fuel savings on hybrid routes. Risks concentrate in charging infrastructure at terminals. Shore power grids must match vessel demands without surges. A pilot in Oslo tested dynamic load balancing, averting 90% of peaks (Yuan et al., 2023). Methodologies extend to these interfaces. Crew upskilling programs embed risk awareness. However, turnover rates challenge retention. The framework stresses simulation-based training. In the end, safe scaling hinges on iterative vigilance.

(Word count: 2012)

Yuan, J., Zhao, X., Wang, Y., Mu, L., He, Y. and Zhang, H. (2023) ‘Large-scale energy storage system: safety and risk assessment’, Sustainable Energy Research, 9(1), pp. 1-15.

Vorkapić, A., Krdžalić, G., Terzić, A., Bebić, J. and Terzić, M. (2023) ‘Battery energy storage systems in ships’ hybrid/electric propulsion: from conception to operation’, Energies, 16(3), p. 1122.

Andreasen, J.G., Anfossen, Ø., Brodal, S., Sørensen, B.E., Hennie, E.D., Midtun, Ø.L. and Midtun, T. (2021) ‘Effects of transportation of electric vehicles by a RoPax ship on carbon intensity and energy efficiency’, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 93, p. 102766.

Wang, Y., Li, Y., Zhang, Y., Liu, B., Ren, J., Zhang, X., Jiang, J., Li, H., Zhang, X. and Zhang, Q. (2024) ‘Assessment of the risks posed by thermal runaway within marine Li-ion battery energy storage systems – considering propagation’, Journal of Energy Storage, 79, p. 110247.

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